ONE TO WATCH OUT FOR

TEN TO FOLLOW - Taken from the TDN
Bill Oppenheim
Among each sire crop, once the foals actually start coming to auction, sooner or later a commercial pecking order appears. The sire crop with first foals 2004, three-year-olds of 2007 is an example. In their case, the pecking order appeared after the group’s first weanlings had sold at the 2004 November sales. On November 18, 2004 (after OBS October, Fasig-Tipton, and Keeneland November's first four books), Johannesburg, Orientate, and Came Home were all averaging between $99,000-$109,000, while the somewhat surprising Street Cry (because, having won only one stakes race in America, he didn’t have that obvious commercial appeal there) ranked fourth, with an $87,250 average. For that group, at least, that commercial pecking order prevailed until the racetrack results began coming in; as we know now, Street Cry and Johannesburg finished 1-2 on the 2006 North American freshman sire list.

A commercial pecking order has also been established for the current crop of sire debutants, stallions with their first foals 2005, and first two-year-olds 2007. Interestingly, there is again a Big Four, but with two significant differences from their year-older (in first-foal terms) brethren. First, though EMPIRE MAKER, Mineshaft, and Vindication were the group’s obvious ‘big three’ from the get-go, it wasn’t until his first nine two-year-olds sold (by the end of Barretts) averaged over $308,000 that we can declare that Sky Mesa is in the Street Cry position, commercially. Second- and more importantly—we’re talking about $100,000 stallions, not $30,000-$40,000 stallions as in the 2004 group. The top commercial prospects among this sire crop are what used to be considered proper ‘summer-sale’ sires.

The thing that strikes you first about the F2005 Commercial Big Four is that they represent two American (as opposed to European) sire lines: Fappiano and Seattle Slew. The Fappiano is EMPIRE MAKER, who can be Unbridled’s second major-league sire son (after Unbridled’s Song); significantly, the other three of this Big Four are all Seattle Slew-line. Mineshaft is another top prospect by burgeoning sire-of-sires A.P. Indy; Vindication has a shot to be Seattle Slew’s second-best son at stud, after A.P. Indy; and Sky Mesa is the first major son at stud by Pulpit, himself A.P. Indy’s first principal son at stud.

In traditional terms of predicting sire success, you’d have to give the edge to EMPIRE MAKER, by virtue of the act that a major powerhouse breeder, Prince Khalid Abdullah, is putting 18 of them in training--about 20 percent of his foal crop. Being by Unbridled, it’s not surprising that 15 of the 18 are going to EMPIRE MAKER’s trainer, Bobby Frankel; only three have come to Europe. EMPIRE MAKER was a classic three-year-old type: he broke his maiden over one mile at two, then ran third to Toccet in the GII Remsen (nine furlongs) in his only other two-year-old start.

After being beaten at 2-5 in the Sham S. at Santa Anita, Frankel shipped him east without further ado, and he went into the 2003 GI Kentucky Derby as the clear 5-2 favorite after a near 10-length win in the GI Florida Derby (Beyer 108), followed by a Beyer 111 when beating Funny Cide in the mud in the GI Wood. Funny Cide--in what very much turned out to be a portent of things to come--was from the first crop of Distorted Humor, got good at the right time and turned the tables on EMPIRE MAKER at Churchill Downs, winning by almost two lengths. Funny Cide ran a 109 Beyer at the 10-furlong distance, while EMPIRE MAKER didn’t quite run his race, registering a Beyer 106. Funny Cide then ran off and hid in the Preakness (Beyer 114), and went after the Triple Crown in the Belmont at even money (EMPIRE MAKER was 2-1), in what was surely one of the great underlays of all time. Funny Cide patently failed to stay the trip, and EMPIRE MAKER won, though not without a battle from Ten Most Wanted. The Beyer was 110, about what EMPIRE MAKER ended up running in each of his last five starts except the Derby. It was normal for him, but it’s far higher than what is sometimes needed to win the Belmont, so it shows he stayed 12 furlongs very well. In Timeform terms, his raw rating would be about 122-123, but, had he raced into the autumn he would most likely have been rated 126, or even a little higher (finding six points improvement between spring and autumn three-year-olds is fairly normal).

Date: 17 April 2007