ONE TO WATCH OUT FOR
TEN TO FOLLOW - Taken from the TDN
Bill Oppenheim
Among each sire crop, once the foals actually start coming to
auction, sooner or later a commercial pecking order appears. The
sire crop with first foals 2004, three-year-olds of 2007 is an
example. In their case, the pecking order appeared after the
group’s first weanlings had sold at the 2004 November sales. On
November 18, 2004 (after OBS October, Fasig-Tipton, and Keeneland
November's first four books), Johannesburg, Orientate, and Came
Home were all averaging between $99,000-$109,000, while the
somewhat surprising Street Cry (because, having won only one stakes
race in America, he didn’t have that obvious commercial appeal
there) ranked fourth, with an $87,250 average. For that group, at
least, that commercial pecking order prevailed until the racetrack
results began coming in; as we know now, Street Cry and
Johannesburg finished 1-2 on the 2006 North American freshman sire
list.
A commercial pecking order has also been established for the
current crop of sire debutants, stallions with their first foals
2005, and first two-year-olds 2007. Interestingly, there is again a
Big Four, but with two significant differences from their
year-older (in first-foal terms) brethren. First, though
EMPIRE MAKER, Mineshaft, and
Vindication were the group’s obvious ‘big three’ from the get-go,
it wasn’t until his first nine two-year-olds sold (by the end of
Barretts) averaged over $308,000 that we can declare that Sky Mesa
is in the Street Cry position, commercially. Second- and more
importantly—we’re talking about $100,000 stallions, not
$30,000-$40,000 stallions as in the 2004 group. The top commercial
prospects among this sire crop are what used to be considered
proper ‘summer-sale’ sires.
The thing that strikes you first about the F2005 Commercial Big
Four is that they represent two American (as opposed to European)
sire lines: Fappiano and Seattle Slew. The Fappiano is
EMPIRE MAKER, who can be
Unbridled’s second major-league sire son (after Unbridled’s
Song); significantly, the other three of this Big Four are
all Seattle Slew-line. Mineshaft is another top prospect by
burgeoning sire-of-sires A.P. Indy; Vindication has a shot to
be Seattle Slew’s second-best son at stud, after A.P. Indy;
and Sky Mesa is the first major son at stud by Pulpit,
himself A.P. Indy’s first principal son at stud.
In traditional terms of predicting sire success, you’d have to
give the edge to EMPIRE MAKER, by
virtue of the act that a major powerhouse breeder, Prince Khalid
Abdullah, is putting 18 of them in training--about 20 percent of
his foal crop. Being by Unbridled, it’s not surprising that 15 of
the 18 are going to EMPIRE MAKER’s
trainer, Bobby Frankel; only three have come to
Europe. EMPIRE MAKER was a
classic three-year-old type: he broke his maiden over one mile at
two, then ran third to Toccet in the GII Remsen (nine furlongs) in
his only other two-year-old start.
After being beaten at 2-5 in the Sham S. at Santa Anita, Frankel
shipped him east without further ado, and he went into the 2003 GI
Kentucky Derby as the clear 5-2 favorite after a near 10-length win
in the GI Florida Derby (Beyer 108), followed by a Beyer 111 when
beating Funny Cide in the mud in the GI Wood. Funny Cide--in what
very much turned out to be a portent of things to come--was from
the first crop of Distorted Humor, got good at the right time and
turned the tables on EMPIRE
MAKER at Churchill Downs, winning by almost two
lengths. Funny Cide ran a 109 Beyer at the 10-furlong distance,
while EMPIRE MAKER didn’t quite run
his race, registering a Beyer 106. Funny Cide then ran off and hid
in the Preakness (Beyer 114), and went after the Triple Crown in
the Belmont at even money (EMPIRE
MAKER was 2-1), in what was surely one of the great
underlays of all time. Funny Cide patently failed to stay the trip,
and EMPIRE MAKER won, though
not without a battle from Ten Most Wanted. The Beyer was 110, about
what EMPIRE MAKER ended up
running in each of his last five starts except the Derby. It was
normal for him, but it’s far higher than what is sometimes needed
to win the Belmont, so it shows he stayed 12 furlongs very well. In
Timeform terms, his raw rating would be about 122-123, but, had he
raced into the autumn he would most likely have been rated 126, or
even a little higher (finding six points improvement between spring
and autumn three-year-olds is fairly normal).
Date:
17 April 2007